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Does Innovation Quality Shift in U.S. Decarbonization Patents? Comparative Analysis between Pre-Post Trump Era

초록(요약문)

For clean technology, how much downstream uptake an invention attracts depends on a supportive innovation environment that public policy helps sustain, yet such support can be reversed. This thesis examines whether the patent quality of United States decarbonization inventions, proxied by the forward citations they accumulate, shifted after the 2017 reversal of federal environmental-policy support, and whether three invention-level characteristics, geopolitical exposure, international scope, and inventor experience, condition that shift. Estimating a Poisson model of four-year forward citations on 10,846 United States-invented decarbonization patent families filed between 2014 and 2019, drawn from the PATSTAT database, it compares families filed before the reversal with those filed after. Post-2017 patents are associated with markedly fewer forward citations than otherwise comparable patents filed before. This decline is conditioned at the invention level: it is larger for patents high in geopolitical exposure and smaller for those with broad international scope or deep inventor experience. The thesis contributes by showing that patent quality is policy-contingent and that its post- reversal decline is systematically heterogeneous across invention-level characteristics; it documents associational, conditional-mean shifts in a citation- based quality proxy rather than a causal effect.

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목차

Abstract iv
1. INTRODUCTION 1
2. THEORY 5
2.1 Theoretical Background 5
2.2 Theoretical Framework and Hypotheses 8
2.2.1 Geopolitical exposure 11
2.2.2 International scope 14
2.2.3 Inventor experience 17
3. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 20
3.1 Data and sample 20
3.2 Method 22
3.3 Variables and descriptive statistics 24
3.4 Empirical Results 31
3.5 Impact analysis 36
3.6 Robustness tests 39
3.7 Robustness to citation definition, jurisdiction, and family scope 42
4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 47
4.1 Theoretical implications 48
4.2 Policy and managerial implications 51
4.3 Limitations and avenues for future research 54
4.4 Conclusion 59
Bibliography 60
Appendix A. Data construction and cleaning details 66
A.1 Patent-family definition 66
A.2 Y02 and H01M classification scheme evolution 67
A.3 Data-cleaning details 68

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