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An Analysis of the Impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom’s Constituent Countries’ Independence Movements

초록(요약문)

On 23 June 2016, the electorate of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) voted in a referendum to leave the European Union (EU), with 51.9% supporting withdrawal from the supranational organisation. The decision to pursue Brexit, the UK’s eventual withdrawal from the EU, was a landmark event for both the international system and the UK’s four constituent countries. While considerable scholarly attention has been devoted to the UK’s unprecedented departure from the EU and its broader consequences, less focus has been placed on how Brexit has impacted the internal dynamics between the UK’s constituent nations. For some political actors, Brexit has presented a binary choice between two unions: the UK and the EU. This thesis investigates the extent to which Brexit has influenced secessionist movements within the UK, with a particular focus on Scotland and Northern Ireland, and, to a lesser extent, Wales. The primary emphasis is on the economic consequences of Brexit as a driving force behind these movements. It also examines the political factors that have fuelled renewed efforts toward independence and assesses how the referendum and its aftermath have reshaped public opinion and the strategies of key political actors. While Brexit is a fluid and evolving process, this research fills a gap in understanding how it has affected pre-existing secessionist movements committed both to seceding from the UK and to applying to rejoin the EU. A comparative case study approach is employed to analyse the three primary secessionist movements within the UK and to evaluate the varying degrees to which the UK’s exit from the EU has acted as a catalyst for secessionist sentiment. This thesis argues that Brexit has deepened the democratic deficit within the UK and heightened economic vulnerabilities across the devolved constituent countries. The key findings show that in Northern Ireland, Brexit has prompted a marked shift in attitudes toward the border, with economic considerations increasingly overriding traditional sectarian divisions. In Scotland, secession debates have intensified, as EU membership is framed as both an economic and political motivation for secession. In Wales, by contrast, economic realism dictates that remaining part of the UK is a rational and calculated choice, reflecting material interdependence rather than ideological attachment. Ultimately, while Brexit undeniably reignited debates concerning the UK’s future, the enduring resilience of the multinational state continues to demonstrate its capacity to absorb and adapt to even the most profound internal disruptions. Collectively, these findings underscore the centrality of economic realism in shaping each region’s post-Brexit constitutional preferences. Keywords: Secession, Brexit, European Union, United Kingdom, National Unity

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목차

Ⅰ. INTRODUCTION 1
A. Thesis Background and Purposes 1
B. Operationalisation of Variables 3
C. Secession in International Relations 4
D. Research Methodology 6
E. Organisation of Thesis 8
Ⅱ. LITERATURE REVIEW: THEORISING SECESSIONISM 10
A. Understanding Secession and State Cohesion: Theoretical Foundations 10
B. Normative Approaches to Secession: Moral Claims and Democratic Legitimacy 12
C. Realist and Empirical Approaches: Material Incentives and Strategic Behaviour 13
D. Economic Factors Driving Secessionism 15
E. Brexit as a Structural Shock: Reframing Secessionist Incentives 18
F. Theoretical Synthesis and Analytical Framework 20
Ⅲ. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF THE UNITED KINGDOM, THE EUROPEAN UNION, AND BREXIT 23
A. Introduction of the Primary Actors and Key Concepts 23
B. Evolution of The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 24
C. The Primary Secessionist Movements Within the United Kingdom 30
D. European Integration: Post-War Evolution of the European Union 31
E. Understanding Brexit: Debates and Outcomes 34
Ⅳ. NORTHERN IRELAND AND BREXIT: ECONOMICS AS A DRIVER OF REUNIFICATION 41
A. Northern Ireland's Legal Framework for Secession from the United Kingdom 41
B. Northern Ireland within the United Kingdom: Geopolitical Overview 42
C. Economic Realism and Northern Ireland's Binary Choice 44
D. Surveying Public Opinion in Northern Ireland: The Union and Brexit 48
E. Mitigating Brexit: The Northern Ireland Protocol 51
F. From Identity to Interest: The Alliance Party's Economic Appeal 54
V. BREXIT'S UNEVEN IMPACT: COMPARING SCOTLAND AND WALES 58
A. Economic Realism and Renewed Calls for Scottish Independence Post-Brexit 58
(1) Scotland's Legal Framework for Secession from the United Kingdom 58
(2) Scotland Within the United Kingdom: Geopolitical Overview 59
(3) Surveying Public Opinion in Scotland: The Union and Brexit 60
(4) Brexit as a Catalyst for Second Scottish Independence Referendum 67
B. The Welsh Exception: Economic Self-Interest and Continued Unionism 69
(1) Wales within the United Kingdom: Geopolitical Overview 70
(2) Wales's Economic Realism: Welsh Appetite for British Unionism 72
Ⅵ. CONCLUSION 74
A. Summary of Findings 74
B. Implications and Reflections Beyond the United Kingdom 76
C. Limitations of Research 77
Bibliography 80

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