서강대학교

목차

I. Introduction 1
A. At the Doorstep: The EU CBAM Policy and Emerging Concerns 1
B. Current Status of China Exporting Base Iron and Steel (HS-72) to the EU 5
C. The Need for Impact Analysis 9
D. Research Objectives and Research Questions 11
E. Contributions of the Research 13
F. Structure of the Paper16
II. Literature Review and Hypothesis Development17
A. Impact of CBAM17
B. Methods and Factors for Evaluating CBAM Impacts 21
C. Government Policy Responses to CBAM25
D. Research Gaps Need to be Filled 27
E. Hypothesis Based on Literature Review 29
III. Theoretical Foundation 31
A. EU ETS, Carbon Leakage, and Carbon Border Adjustments 31
B. Gravity Model34
IV. Research Methodology and Data Description 37
A. Impact Analysis of Tariffs on the Export Value of Base Iron and Steel 37
B. CBAM Tariffs’ Estimation 53
C. Simulating the Impact of CBAM on China’s Export Value by Historical Data.68
D. Forecasting the CBAM Trend in 2030 70
E. Research Workflow73
V. Empirical Analysis and Research Outcomes 75
A. Impact of Tariffs on China’s Base Iron and Steel Exports to the EU-27 75
B. Tariff-Equivalent CBAM Charges on Chinese Base Iron and Steel Exports to EU-2788
C. The Impact of CBAM on China’s Export Value under Historical Trade Data 92
D. The CBAM Trend of Charges and Equivalent Tariffs until 2030 98
VI. Policy Implications 101
A. Industrial Policies Focus on the Key Impact Factors of CBAM 101
B. Strategically International Trade Adjustment on Export Structure 107
C. Bilateral Trade Negotiations 109
D. Trade Conflicts and Retaliation Preparation 111
VII. Conclusion and Limitations of the Study 115
A. Discussions on Research Findings 115
B. Conclusion of the Study 120
C. Limitation and Future Works 123
Reference 126
Appendix 138