서강대학교

목차

1 Currency Depreciation and Firm Investment: The Capital Reshoring Channel 1

1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Data 6
1.2.1 Data and Sample Description 6
1.2.2 Firms’ Exposure to the Capital Reshoring Channel 7
1.2.3 Summary Statistics 7
1.3 Empirical Strategy 9
1.4 Empirical Results 12
1.4.1 Main Results 12
1.4.2 Heterogeneous Effects across Firms 14
1.4.3 Dynamic Evidence 20
1.5 Robustness Checks 22
1.6 Concluding Remarks 27

2 Did the American Rescue Plan Cause Inflation? A Synthetic Control Approach 28

2.1 Introduction 28
2.2 U.S. COVID-19 Stimulus Packages 33
2.3 Empirical Settings 36
2.3.1 Methodology 36
2.3.2 Data and Sample 38
2.4 Empirical Results 42
2.4.1 Benchmark Analysis: The Effect of the American Rescue Plan on Inflation 43
2.4.2 Placebo Studies 47
2.4.3 Synthetic DID with Country Fixed Effect and Time Weights 49
2.4.4 Fiscal Limit Mechanism: Erosion of Fiscal Credibility under a Fiscally-Led Policy Mix Regime 51
2.5 Robustness Checks 54
2.5.1 Availability of Comparison Donors 54
2.5.2 The Spillover Effect of Fiscal Policy 56
2.5.3 Confounding Shocks in the Trade Channel 58
2.5.4 The Anticipation Effect on Inflation 59
2.5.5 Volatility of Inflation and Size of the Effect 61
2.5.6 Goodness of Fit versus Sparsity 62
2.6 Concluding Remarks 63

3 Using Computer Vision to Predict Monetary Policy 64

3.1 Introduction 64
3.2 Data and Methodology 65
3.2.1 Data 65
3.2.2 Methodology 67
3.3 Empirical Results 69
3.3.1 Training, Tuning, and Evaluating the Model 69
3.3.2 Predicting the Fed’s Monetary Policy 72
3.3.3 Robustness Checks 74
3.4 Concluding Remarks 74

References 75