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THE IMPACT OF CHINA’S DIGITAL SILK ROAD (DSR) ON TRADE : China's Digital Silk Road and Trade

초록 (요약문)

This dissertation aims to investigate the impact of China’s Digital Silk Road (DSR) Initiative on trade in participant countries. As a critical component of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the DSR aims to enhance digital connectivity and promote international economic cooperation by investing in digital infrastructure and technology. While previous research has primarily examined the impact of the BRI on trade, few studies have specifically investigated the effects of its digital component, the Digital Silk Road (DSR). To fill this gap, the study employs a Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach using panel data from 186 countries over the period 2010 to 2023. To address potential endogeneity and selection bias in treatment group, a Propensity Score Matching-DID (PSM-DID) model is applied. The results indicate that DSR participation is associated with increased bilateral trade flows between China and participant countries, particularly in countries with moderate levels of ICT development. Mediation analysis shows that ICT development fully mediate the relationship between DSR participation and bilateral trade, indicating that trade effect may operate through enhanced digital infrastructure. Moderation analysis further shows that the trade effects of DSR differ by ICT readiness, with countries at intermediate stages of ICT development appearing to benefit more. These findings may inform policymakers considering digital infrastructure as a potential means to support trade growth. Keywords: Digital Silk Road, digital trade, digital connectivity, Information and Communication Technology, DID, PSM-DID, Mediation, Moderation Analysis

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목차

Chapter 1. Introduction 1
Chapter 2. Research Framework 34
2.1 Overview of the Digital Silk Road (DSR). 34
2.2 Connecting the DSR to ICT development Indices. 54
2.3 DSR, ICT Development and Trade 59
Chapter 3. Research Methodology . 64
3.1 Theoretical Foundation of Research Design. 64
3.2 Hypothesis . 66
3.3 Research Design 68
3.4 Data Collection 82
Chapter 4 Data Analysis and Results . 88
4.1 DID and PSM-DID Estimation Results 88
4.2 Mediation Analysis . 102
4.3 Moderation Analysis . 111
Chapter 5 Findings and Discussions . 117
5.1 Impact of the DSR on Trade: DID Model 117
5.2 Role of ICT as a Mediator: Mediation Analysis. 137
5.3 Role of ICT as a Moderator: Moderation Analysis. 142
Chapter 6 Policy Implications and Limitations 149
Chapter 7 Conclusion 157
Bibliography 160
Appendices . 175

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