서강대학교

초록/요약

This study evaluates the stability of the North Korean regime, focusing on the governing strategies of the Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un periods, and analyzes the effectiveness of sanctions against North Korea, focusing on the economic cost of sanctions. During the Kim Jong-il regime, North Korea emphasized the leader-elite centered unity through the Songun politics and exploited North Koreans resident to guarantee the privileges of them. However, the economic cost of sanctions against North Korea was offset by North Korea's dependence on China, and thus had no effect on the North Korean economy. This means that the Kim Jong-il regime had no reason to comply with the sanctions demand. On the other hand, during the Kim Jong-un regime, the North Korean regime reduced the enlarged elite power and invested state resources to improve the lives of North Korean residents. However, as sanctions against North Korea were strengthened after the 4th nuclear test and subsequent missile provocations, the North Korean economy had to endure enormous economic pain. The cost of sanctions means a direct loss to the privileged economy of the leader-elite, and in the long term, it is highly likely to cause dissatisfaction with North Korean residents due to a shortage of goods. The greater the economic cost of the North Korean economy due to sanctions, the greater the instability of the North Korean regime will be intensified, thus restraining North Korea's provocation and making Kim Jong-un respond to the sanctions demand.