서강대학교

초록/요약

In response to the rise of China and the US rebalance towards Asia, various Asia Pacific states have adopted a hedging strategy in their foreign policy vis-à-vis the two superpowers. In this regard, recent years have seen countries such as South Korea, Australia and New Zealand leveling up their economic relations with China, while upgrading their security partnership with the United States. Nevertheless, the outcome of this approach has thus far been significantly different for the states involved. This research uses a historical analysis to explore whether or not hedging is a viable strategy for New Zealand by comparing its experience in conducting such strategy to that of South Korea and Australia. While geostrategic realities of being situated in close proximity to North Korea, Russia and China have rendered South Korea dependent on a security alliance, New Zealand benefits from being positioned in a far less volatile geopolitical environment—distant from the main points of friction between the United States and its adversaries. This circumstance enabled New Zealand to fend off US pressure applied upon the country to allow nuclear armed US vessels into its ports, resulting in its suspension from the Australia-New Zealand-United States (ANZUS) Security Treaty in 1986. Consequently, for the past three decades Wellington has exercised absolute autonomy in managing its security policy—autonomy that has provided it with greater leeway and freedom to hedge. Moreover, in contrast to Australia, New Zealand’s active engagement of China has forged remarkably amicable relations between Wellington and Beijing. In this regard, Wellington should exercise caution in pursuing its tightening security partnership with the United States. If New Zealand wishes to maintain its autonomy in managing its foreign and security affairs and to be able to avoid crossing in the future Chinese ‘red-lines’, then it should refrain from entering into formal and binding military agreements with the United States that might compel it to partake in military exercises in or near the South China Sea.