서강대학교

초록/요약

The reasons for the recent Myanmar reform can be analyzed in two ways: endogenous factors and exogenous factors of the Myanmar junta. This paper would like to introduce these factors of the Myanmar regime and find the main factor by comparing the effects of each. There are two points that this paper explains: First, the current Myanmar reform was led by the authoritarian regime. The socioeconomic crisis of Myanmar, which was generated from technical inadequacy, made the elites in power choose the transformation. In particular, Than Shwe’s retirement might have worked to bring rapid reform by reducing the restriction from hardliners considering Myanmar politics, which have traditionally been predominated by the personality and interests of the top leader. Second, the Myanmar reform was influenced less by exogenous factors than by endogenous factors. The sanctions demonstrated their ineffectiveness because they were imposed partially. Myanmar could reduce sanction damage by getting support from China and trading with non-sanction countries. Although China changed its position to not protecting Myanmar from the blame of the international society, it was afraid of the instability of the Myanmar regime because it wanted to secure its benefits from Myanmar. Therefore they couldn’t require the Myanmar to change its regime strongly. On the other hand, the Obama policy of the US changed to a pragmatic approach towards Myanmar, and bilateral relations between Myanmar and the US were improved after Thin Sein showed his reform mind in such ways as dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi. China and the US changed their positions towards Myanmar, but the implications were not more influential than the endogenous factors.