서강대학교

초록/요약

In the modern era, all economies interested in economic integration, such as ASEAN, EU, NAFTA, etc. Economic integration brings many benefits, likely lower tariff, removal of subsidies, NTB reduction, opportunities for exports and imports, etc. Economic integration is a key for trade improvement. But integration also have many negative impacts, such as losing protections, reducing fiscal policies, fierce competition from foreign, etc. As a whole, economy may better off or worse off due to economic integration. Hence, first purpose of this thesis evaluates impacts of economic integration on Vietnam’s economy base on benefits and costs. In more details, this thesis will evaluate the impacts of economic integration on Vietnamese bilateral trade flows by quantitative analysis using Fixed and Random Effect Estimation with sample data from 53 countries within 15 years (1995-2009) following the gravity model. As a result, GDP per capita and population of trading partners provide a positive impact; distance has a negative influence; border has a positive effect on Vietnamese exports; the exchange rate is a good tool for reducing imports. In sum, economic integration is a major positive factor in Vietnamese economic growth in recent years. Bases on these analyses, the second purpose of this paper suggests some useful solutions to Vietnam’s government. Key suggestions for improvements to the Vietnamese economy appear in this thesis. Changing policies for exchange rates, exports, FDI, and business support will have a major positive effect. Even more important is the need for domestic firms to reform business practices, upgrade equipment and technologies, and improve management skills and corporate cultures. Government must support domestic companies, especially with information channels and macroeconomic stability. Vietnam can and needs to follow the highly successful economic example of South Korea.