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Intelligence Failure due to Cognitive Biases : The Cases of the Pearl Harbor and the 9/11 Attack

초록/요약

In the history of the U.S., the territory has been attacked twice by other opponents. The first case was the Pearl Harbor in 1941 and the second case was the 9/11 attack in 2001. Between two cases, there are some differences: the first is the time difference; and the second is the information collecting capability difference. However, a similarity in two cases is that the incidents were committed by opponents' surprise attack. The reason why the similarity appears in the both cases is that it was caused by errors in intelligence analysis, and it was resulted from analysts, because the main actors of analysis are human resources. The causes of faulty analysis by intelligence analysts are cognitive biases committed by analysts. When analysts apply mindsets in analysis process, they tend to be cognitive misers, so the biases can intervene in the process. The types of biases can be classified as (1) lack of rational thinking; (2) underestimation and overconfidence; and (3) persistence and insensitivity. And these biases influence each other and they interfere with analysts' rational thinking and accurate analysis. To prevent falling into biases, (1) application of Augmented Cognition; (2) training human resources; and (3) application of outside experts can be suggested by the researcher.

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