서강대학교

초록/요약

This thesis begins from the critical mind that why the state leading world-order, USA, underwent intelligence failure while deciding the Iraq war. The fact shown up while developing logics, is that even though USA maintains large intelligence agencies and up-to-date technology, it does not guarantee successful intelligence activities. The intelligence failure coming from of the organizational and structural factor of intelligence agency and the mental and personal factor of intelligence personnel implies the danger which can eventually fail the policy. The significant fact is the importance of the will of policy decision makers in connection with the recognition of relationships among policy process, intelligence, and intelligence agencies. Intelligence agencies may change depending on the preference of the policy maker on a certain type of intelligence and utilization of intelligence agencies. Many intelligence theorists, including Sherman Kent, have pointed out, a close interaction should be entrenched between intelligence and policy decisions. However, this kind of interaction often did not take place because of complicated and hostile relationship between the decision maker and the intelligence community, in addition to the politicizing and artificial distortion of intelligence. Iraq war appears to having had intelligence failure in all levels of decision, or collecting, analyzing, and using the intelligence. According to Iraq Survey Group (ISG) that was conducted during post war period, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s report, and “The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the USA regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)” that was established under presidents Bush’s special order, it is said that the United States’ and policy makers’ intelligence judgment toward Iraq was entirely wrong. This thesis divides intelligence personnels into collector, analyst, and consumer, and analyzes the reason of intelligence failure by each personnels, and wants to show that the intelligence failure can be made not only from the problem of intelligence agency but also from the personnel himself. The activity of the USA intelligence community is a meaningful case to Korea as it has to prepare proper policy against North Korea’s nuclear threat and against USA. This not only give attention to the activity of intelligence agency but also implication on the intelligence consumer who is in charge of the foreign policy.