서강대학교

초록/요약

This paper focuses on analyzing and evaluating Vietnam？s trade reform and institutional changes, together with its resulting outcome. The paper finds that Vietnam has moved toward a more liberal, rule？based, and transparent trade regime. Nevertheless, Vietnam still needs to deepen its trade reform in order to fulfill its international commitments as well as to complete its own ongoing process of economic transition. Overall, the outcome of trade reform in Vietnam is spectacular. Vietnam？s trade flows have expanded dramatically with high export growth. The high growth of exports can be largely explained by the dynamics of its manufactured exports. Through the CMS analysis, this paper finds that the significant increase in world demand and its export competitiveness have played a decisive role in the high growth rate of Vietnam？s exports. Moreover, Vietnam？s trade reform is also believed to contribute positively to the country？s economic growth, poverty reduction, and employment generation. The in？depth analysis on Vietnam？s trade structure using various trade indices leads us to derive the following conclusions. First, the structure of trade has become more diversified, manufactured exports have expanded, and the reliance on primary product exports has declined. Second, there has been a growing complementary pattern of trade between Vietnam and its major trading partners. Third, Vietnam has low intra？industry trade index levels, suggesting that the economies of scale are not being exploited in Vietnam. Fourth, Vietnam generally enjoys a comparative advantage mainly in either primary products or low？technology manufactures. Finally, there is evidence that Vietnam？s exports to ASEAN countries have faced trade diversion.