Strategy of the War on Terror
- 발행기관 서강대학교 국제대학원
- 지도교수 김재천
- 발행년도 2006
- 학위수여년월 200608
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 및 전공 국제대학원
- 식별자(기타) 000000103361
- 본문언어 영어
초록/요약
The goal of this thesis is to examine the problem of terrorism from a number of perspectives and to determine whether democracy could in fact alleviate terrorism. The research question is whether democracy is an effective means of deterring terrorism as suggested by US democracy building efforts being included among the War on Terrorism’s strategies. The features of this study can be summarized as follows: The second chapter deals with War on Terror strategy in terms of classic war strategy as prescribed by Clausewitz and Sun Tsu. Clausewitzian strategy follows a conventional war pattern while Sun Tsu actually prefers not fighting at all and prefers to prevent conflict by fostering conditions that discourage fighting in the first place. In terms of the War on Terrorism, it is becoming increasingly evident that killing terrorists with conventional means does not prevent more from taking their place. Therefore the remainder of the thesis examines how democratic governance is in fact a condition that deters terrorism both in theory and empirically. The third chapter focuses on the theory behind democratic terror prevention. The basic argument is that terrorism is an expression of political discontent through violence meant to create an atmosphere of fear to coerce the government into compliance. Democracy, as a system based on the expression of political views through elections and voting, is a system where would be terrorists have other avenues to express their political views. The disarming of the IRA and ETA are examples of how joining in a meaningful democratic political process can cause terrorists to lay down their weapons. How and why this is attainable is examined through the IR theories of Democratic Peace and Neorealism. Basically sovereignty is a requirement for the existence of any state. Democracy is based on the expression of the support of a populace for the government. Democratic Peace claims democracies are more peaceful within and without. Neorealism says that states are concerned with selfish interests such as staying in power and control of the monopoly of the use of force. Terrorism is an affront to the state’s sovereignty and monopoly over the use of force. States may respond to terrorism with force which as discussed previously merely kills terrorists, not their political discontent. Therefore, bringing them into the political process in democratic terms is easier and less costly than conventional war or police tactics. The fourth chapter is an empirical examination of the effect of democracy on terrorism. First, in accordance with democratic peace theory, the relative peacefulness of democratic regimes is demonstrated. Then the choice of a terrorist between violence and non violence is demonstrated using an indifference curve. Finally, using democratic statistics from Freedom House (Freedom House Rating) and the Bertelsmann Foundation (Bertelsmann Transformation Index) and terrorism statistics provided by Monty Marshal from a survey of news reports (Terrorism Indicators) and Failure Task force database (Collective Political Violence with Excessive Targeting of Civilians). These statistics are used to perform a basic correlation analysis and then a multivariate regression. These analyses show that there is and strong negative correlation between democracy and terrorism and definitely grounds for further statistical examination. The fifth and final chapter is the conclusion and it is that the analysis performed in this thesis shows that democracy deters terrorism both qualitatively and quantitatively. In accordance with Sun Tzu, the best way to defeat an enemy is to create an environment in which he chooses not to attack you in the first place. This thesis has dealt with the enemy: Terrorism and the perceived condition which deters terror attacks: democracy. Terrorism, as the violent expression of political will, is an act resorted to when other political avenues have been closed. In countries where political participation is encouraged there are more non violent options to express people’s political will. Democracy, as a system base purely on the expression of this will, is the system most suited to providing this political arena for dissent. In a country where there is the choice between terror and non violent political activism, people lean towards the option that is most desirable based of its effectiveness. Mature democracies usually have a strong civil society made up of citizens who believe in the system and in turn, its effectiveness. In countries with no choice between violent and non violent means there is but the choice of which violent means to use.
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